Short Answer: The Government Is Not in Immediate Danger, But NC Faces Its Biggest Internal Crisis Since Returning to Power
By: Javid Amin | 01 November 2026
The headlines about “24 NC MLAs rebelling” and Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi’s planned resignation have undoubtedly shaken the ruling National Conference (NC). However, based on currently available facts, there is no evidence that Omar Abdullah’s government is on the verge of collapse.
The real story is not government survival.
The real story is a battle over power, ideology, accountability, statehood, Article 370 and the future direction of the NC.
What Exactly Happened?
A group of NC legislators met at the residence of Lolab MLA Qaisar Jamshid Lone.
- Around 18 MLAs reportedly attended physically.
- Another six legislators reportedly joined virtually.
- Together, reports put the dissident group at 24 legislators. [news.abplive.com], [newsbytesapp.com]
The group demanded:
- Greater accountability in governance.
- Transparency in cabinet expansion.
- Empowerment of MLAs.
- A roadmap for implementing the NC manifesto.
- Removal of adviser Nasir Aslam Wani.
- Review of ministerial performance and restructuring.
Is This Merely About Cabinet Berths?
No.
The latest memorandum extends much further.
The legislators reportedly called for:
- Intensified struggle for statehood restoration.
- Protection of J&K’s constitutional identity.
- Greater political mobilisation.
- Public outreach campaigns and parliamentary interventions.
This indicates dissatisfaction not only with appointments but also with what some perceive as the government’s political direction.
The Ruhullah Factor May Be Bigger Than the MLA Revolt
Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi’s dispute is fundamentally different from the cabinet controversy.
His criticism revolves around:
- Article 370.
- Constitutional identity.
- Statehood versus special status.
- Manifesto commitments.
Ruhullah has argued that restoration of Article 370 was part of the NC’s electoral promise and questioned whether the party has shifted too heavily toward a statehood-only narrative.
Notably, reports indicate his resignation is being framed by his camp as a principled disagreement rather than an attempt to engineer a split inside NC.
What About Gurezi, Mubarak Gul and Others?
Several influential leaders have reportedly been unhappy after the cabinet reshuffle.
Among names frequently mentioned in reports:
- Nazir Ahmad Khan (Gurezi)
- Mubarak Gul
- Abdul Majeed Larmi
- Aijaz Jan
However, there is no verified evidence that they are planning to leave NC.
Their concerns appear tied primarily to representation, consultation and internal functioning.
Is There a Rupture Between Omar and the Cadre?
Ground reports indicate three recurring complaints:
1. Coterie Culture
Some MLAs allege that unelected advisers and a small inner circle exercise excessive influence.
2. Lack of Consultation
MLAs reportedly feel major decisions are being taken without adequate consultation.
3. Political Dilution
A section of the party wants stronger mobilisation around Article 370 and statehood restoration.
Could the Government Fall?
Based on Current Facts: Unlikely.
Reasons:
✅ No MLA has withdrawn support to the government.
✅ Dissidents continue to say they want to strengthen the party rather than break it.
✅ No rival claimant for Chief Ministership has emerged.
✅ The rebellion is directed more at governance and advisers than at overthrowing the government.
Could Ruhullah Become CM Under a BJP (“Lotus”) Banner?
Current Evidence: None.
There is no verified political development suggesting:
- Ruhullah joining BJP.
- BJP backing Ruhullah for CM.
- Any negotiated arrangement between the two sides.
Given the substantial ideological differences publicly expressed by both camps, such suggestions remain speculative.
Could a BJP-PDP Coalition Emerge?
Current Evidence: None.
Politics often creates surprising alignments, but as of now:
- No formal talks have been reported.
- No public signals suggest active coalition negotiations.
- No party has indicated support for such an arrangement.
Any prediction of a BJP-PDP coalition at this stage would be speculation rather than fact.
The Real Political Risk for Omar Abdullah
The biggest risk is not arithmetic.
It is perception.
The NC leadership is simultaneously confronting:
- 24 legislators demanding changes.
- Ruhullah’s planned November 3 resignation.
- Questions over Article 370 commitments.
- Internal complaints over decision-making.
Taken together, these developments amount to what some observers describe as the party’s most serious internal challenge since returning to office. [greaterkashmir.com]
Ground Assessment
Our assessment based on reported facts:
The Omar Abdullah government is politically uncomfortable, not politically endangered.
The immediate challenge is managing dissent within NC and preventing ideological disagreements from turning into an organised faction.
The next key date is November 3, when Aga Syed Ruhullah Mehdi has said he intends to resign from both the party and his Lok Sabha seat. The leadership’s response to that development may shape the next phase of J&K politics.
Bottom Line: This is less a numbers crisis and more an identity crisis. The battle underway inside NC is about whether the party should prioritise governance, statehood, or a more aggressive political campaign around Article 370 and constitutional issues.
