Once a dominant force in J&K, the PDP faces an uphill battle in upcoming elections after a poor showing in 2024, struggling against rivals and past alliances.
In 2014, the Peoples Democratic Party was the single-largest party in the assembly elections in Jammu and Kashmir and went on to form the government in alliance with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
A decade later, former chief minister Mehbooba Mufti’s party is fighting a battle for its survival in its erstwhile bastion of south Kashmir. The party faced a rout in the 2024 Lok Sabha polls of 2024, winning zero seats and just 8.45% of the votes. Its main rival in the Valley, the National Conference (NC) won two out of the three seats in the Valley and 22.2% of the votes. Its main leader — Mehbooba Mufti — lost by 181,000 votes from Anantnag-Rajouri
And now, in the first assembly elections in the region in a decade, the party faces an existential battle in a four-cornered contest involving its traditional rivals NC-Congress, the Bharatiya Janata Party, and a clutch of independents and smaller parties backed by entities such as the Jamaat-e-Islami Kashmir.
“PDP’s chances don’t seem to be bright in this election. It carries the burden of its past. People are blaming it, in part, for what happened in recent years in J&K and it won’t be able to come close to its past performance in south Kashmir,” said political analyst and retired Kashmir University professor, Noor Baba.
The Union Territory goes to the polls in three phases beginning September 18. The votes will be counted on October 8.
Burdened by past alliances
The party’s spectacular performance in 2014 — it won 28 seats and 22.67% of the votes — ironically set the stage for its troubles.
In 2014, the party emerged as the single-largest party with 28 seats out of 87, while the BJP got 25, the NC 15 to and the Congress 12. The party formed a coalition of ideological extremes with the BJP, and Mufti Mohammed Sayeed became the chief minister.
But in 2018, after Sayeed’s death, the BJP revoked its support and pushed the erstwhile state into governor’s rule. Then on August 5, 2019, the Union government scrapped the region’s special status and statehood by abrogating Article 370. It also imposed near-curfew restrictions for months, suspended internet services and detained an array of political leaders.
The move caused deep resentment in the Valley, and many people — especially in the PDP’s bastion of south Kashmir, also a hotbed of militancy — blamed Mehbooba Mufti’s party for aligning with the BJP. “This time the movement is towards NC-Congress. People are concerned about their collective loss. We lost our legal backing (in the form of Article 370),” said Ghulam Nabi, a fruit businessman from Anantnag. “Although all mainstream parties have caused degradation of Kashmir’s political status but we blame the PDP for bringing the BJP here,” he added.
The Mufti family bastion
The party was formed by Mufti Mohammad Sayeed in 1999 after leaving the Congress. The PDP went on to form the government along with the Congress in 2002 when it won 16 seats.
With the Mufti’s belonging to Anantnag, South Kashmir became the bastion of the PDP. Mehbooba would often take part in protests against the special operation group (SOG or Task Force), an anti insurgency force often alleged to have been involved in atrocities against civilians in rural areas. The group was later disbanded by Mufti Sayeed and merged with J&K police. Mehbooba would also hold sit-ins outside camps of SOG and army against alleged human rights violations. She would visit families of people who were victims of the alleged atrocities of security forces.
“At a time when nobody would come here, I would visit and go from village to village as there were lot of atrocities. As militancy was severe, security forces would commit excesses. I also managed to remove camps (of security forces). So I have an old relation with Tral and I hope it would again make the party successful this time,” she said at rally in Tral on Friday.
Against this backdrop, the 2024 results came as a rude shock. Not only did Mehbooba Mufti lose, the party could manage a lead only in five assembly segments (out of 90) in south Kashmir’s Anantnag and Pulwama districts, in some cases by very close margins.
“The parliamentary elections indicated that the party has been squeezed further and now the things have become much more complex with the introduction of Jamaat and Engineer Rashid,” Baba said. The PDP’s performance in south Kashmir was built on the tacit support of the Jamaat-e-Islami, said political observers. But the organisation has now fielded its own candidates in around 10 seats.
“Just see the massive response Jamaat’s first political rally in three decades got in Kulgam last week. I sense there are still some fetters on the Jamaat and it has not been allowed to contest from all seats. Had they contested all seats, they could have sprung a surprise and the PDP would have been decimated,” said People’s Conference chief Sajad Lone.
Chances of revival
Analysts say the PDP’s chances will hinge on its ability to revive in south Kashmir because its chances in Srinagar and north Kashmir are low. “Now there is a not a single safe seat for the PDP,” said Farhan Ahmad, a university student from Pulwama district. “Its chances are from seats such as Pulwama, Bijbehara, Anantnag, Devsar and Tral,” he added.
Mehbooba Mufti is not fighting these polls but has fielded her daughter Iltija Mufti, from the family’s home constituency of Sirgufwara-Bijbehara. Iltija’s campaign is focussed on development during the PDP’s 2002 tenure, and Mehbooba’s decision to revoke police complaints against young people during protests following the killing of Hizbul commander Burhan Wani in July 2016.
“The PDP is reviving in south Kashmir. People know that they got rid of Task Force and POTA by PDP in 2002. And Mufti Mohammad Sayeed’s tenure was a golden time for J&K,” said Iltija.
The party is pushing for the restoration of Article 370 . “We will resolve the larger issue of Jammu and Kashmir by involving the stakeholders through dialogue,” she said.
The PDP’s Pulwama candidate, Waheed Para, said the response was good in south Kashmir. “This (south Kashmir) is the founding area of the PDP since 2002. People have a connect with Mufti Sayeed sb and Mehbooba ji’s politics. There was repression here and she was the one going door to door. People remember that and they come out in support,” he said.
Para agreed that the coalition with the BJP was suicidal. “It was an alliance of two parallel lines. But its motive was not government formation but to soothe the pain of Kashmiris and start dialogue between Delhi and Srinagar,” he said. Source
