Suhail Ahmad
Jammu and Kashmir has seen many political experiments with the latest in the list being the 2014 PDP-BJP alliance. At the end of these experiments, the political players often feign regret and even do a review exercise to see what went wrong. The latest we have heard is the PDP’s review of its coalition with BJP. Last year, they took almost two months to announce their alliance. And here we are again, PDP and BJP playing mind games ahead of government formation. It looks like a repeat telecast of 2014 as PDP continues to hold the cards close to the chest. Mehbooba Mufti is biding her time in the hope of a better bargain with renegotiated terms of coalition.According to senior PDP leader, Naeem Akhter, the party is going to take stock of the last 10 months of the government vis-à-vis the ‘Agenda of Alliance’. But as pointed out by the rival National Conference, the very idea of reviewing the coalition performance indicates that PDP has conceded its mistake to join hands with BJP against the popular consent in Kashmir. Meanwhile, desperate to stay in power, BJP sounds softer in its tone, just like the way it was last year when it had even suggested to be willing to compromise on some of the contentious issues for the sake of stitching a coalition with PDP.
One cannot predict the longevity of any coalition government in the State, given the dynamics of the situation in Kashmir. However, even by Mufti Muhammad Sayeed’s own admission, it was like “North Pole meeting South Pole”. So the political stakes were quite high. Caught between the devil and the deep sea, Mufti opted for the experiment of going with BJP in the hope of preferential treatment from the central government led by Narendra Modi. The gamble did not pay off. It was no longer the BJP of Atal Bihari Vajpayee and Mufti had to content with Modi’s style of exercising control over the states.
Coming back to the current impasse, Mehbooba is not in the same strong bargaining position in which her father was last year.
On the surface it may appear like PDP has more options on table than BJP. However, at a closer look it’s clear that PDP is once again in a spot of bother. Notwithstanding the coalition compulsions, the onus is on PDP. Being the single largest party, it has to come forward to provide a stable and efficient government to the people of the state.
The supporters of PDP-BJP coalition argue that the two parties complement each other. While PDP represents Kashmir, BJP takes care of Jammu and together they help hold the restive State together. It does sound an attractive proposition. But the experience of the last 10 months must have taught the Muftis that it is also fraught with dangers of its own kind.
Mufti tried to justify his decision to ally with BJP by saying that he could not have ignored the mandate the right-wing party got in Jammu. He also cited the overwhelming mandate Modi got at the national level earlier. However, the fact remains that PDP’s voters come from Kashmir and it cannot afford to disappoint them.
People of the valley voted against BJP with all its candidates, except one, even losing their deposits. By voting for PDP, people aimed at two things—root out the incompetent NC-Congress government and stop the Hindutva charge of BJP and RSS. BJP swept Jammu’s Hindu-majority areas by stoking anti-Muslim and anti-Kashmir sentiments and people in the Valley are aware of this.
The fear of falling out of favour with Narendra Modi has not helped PDP’s cause. It only made the party more submissive. Allying with a party that is in power at the Centre is of course considered more conducive to the state’s development. But going by this mantra, the party in power at the Centre would have ruled all states in the last 68 years after India’s independence. The truth is that no government at the Centre can afford to stop funds to Jammu and Kashmir.
One cannot really blame PDP for its predicament. It’s just that it had hoped for a better bargain. Time will tell if it can get a better deal this time around. As far as the people are concerned, they have become used to the political experiments made in the name of peace and development of the state.
