Budgam By-election 2025: JKNC vs PDP — Agha Vs Agha in Kashmir’s Political Heartland

Name: Agha Syed Muntazir Mehdi
Party: PDP
Profile: Young political leader, contested Budgam in 2024
Core Support: Emerging youth base, sections of Shia community

Agha Syed Muntazir Mehdi represents the new generation of leadership trying to carve a space in Kashmir’s traditional political landscape. Having lost narrowly in 2024, Mehdi is returning with renewed vigor and a sharpened strategy.

His campaign, amplified through social media and youth outreach, positions him as an alternative to entrenched politics.

Key Strengths

• Youth appeal: Positions himself as a fresh face with new energy.

• Strategic communication: Strong digital campaign to engage first-time voters.

• PDP’s emotional pitch: Leveraging Mehbooba Mufti’s political messaging around land rights, PSA repeal, and equitable governance.

• Community lineage: Belongs to a respected Budgam family, giving him cultural credibility.

Campaign Message

Mehdi’s campaign is built on “change, accountability, and dignity.” He has openly criticized the “status quo politics” of NC, arguing that Budgam needs “a voice, not just a seat.”

His team is mobilizing local youth networks, women voters, and previously disengaged groups to build a counter-narrative against NC’s dominance.

Political Background: Budgam’s Legacy of Power

Budgam has historically played a pivotal role in Kashmir’s mainstream politics. Since 1977, the constituency has seen an unbroken streak of NC dominance, reflecting the strong organizational structure and historical loyalty of its voters.

In the 2024 Assembly polls, Omar Abdullah won the seat with a massive margin of over 18,000 votes, reaffirming its importance as a symbolic mandate for his leadership.

This time, however, the by-election takes place against a different political backdrop:

• Rising public impatience over statehood restoration

• Polarized narratives between NC and PDP

• High youth turnout expectations

• PDP’s strategic shift to issue-based campaigning

Key Issues Dominating the By-election

This clash of narratives—institutional continuity versus political change—is expected to shape voter sentiment.

The Agha Factor: Dynastic Politics Meets New Aspirations

Both candidates belong to influential Agha families of Budgam, highlighting how dynastic politics remains entrenched in Kashmir’s mainstream landscape.

However, while Mehmood represents continuity and loyalty to the traditional NC base, Mehdi embodies the aspirations of a restless, younger generation eager to push for accountability and reform.

This intra-clan political competition adds a unique cultural and emotional dimension to the by-election.

Voter Dynamics: A Mixed, Politically Conscious Electorate

Budgam’s electorate is politically mature, with high voter turnout in previous elections. The district has a mixed Shia-Sunni population, with a history of favoring moderate, mainstream parties.

Key voter blocs:

• Rural voters: Generally pro-NC due to historical loyalty and welfare schemes.

• Youth voters: Leaning toward PDP or independent narratives due to disillusionment.

• Women voters: Seen as a decisive factor, often mobilized late in the campaign.

Election Timeline & Strategy

• Notification: October 2025

• Nomination Filing Deadline: Within two weeks of notification

• Campaign Period: 20+ days

• Polling Date: Expected in mid-November

• Counting & Results: End of November 2025

JKNC Strategy:

• Door-to-door campaigns in rural Budgam.

• Mobilization through party cadres and religious leaders.

• Emphasis on Omar Abdullah’s leadership.

PDP Strategy:

• Digital campaign + rallies.

• Youth engagement and issue-based narrative.

• Positioning Mehdi as a disruptor to the old guard.

National Implications: A Barometer for Kashmir’s Politics

Though a single seat, Budgam carries national political significance. The outcome could:

• Signal public sentiment on the Omar Abdullah government’s first year in office.

• Test PDP’s revival strategy under Mehbooba Mufti.

• Serve as a mini-referendum on issues like statehood restoration, civil liberties, and land rights.

• Shape coalition math in the upcoming Rajya Sabha elections.

A victory for JKNC would consolidate Omar Abdullah’s grip on power, while a strong PDP performance—even without a win—could recalibrate opposition dynamics.

Voices from the Ground

“Budgam is not just a seat. It’s a message to Delhi. If NC wins, it means people still trust Omar. If PDP performs well, it means people want change,” — Local journalist, Srinagar.

“The Agha family has given us leaders for decades. But this time, the youth want jobs, not speeches,” — A Budgam college student.

These on-ground sentiments reflect a shifting political mood—still anchored in legacy, but increasingly impatient for results.

Expert Analysis: What This Election Reveals

1. Kashmir’s Political Landscape Is Evolving:
   While traditional bastions remain important, narrative politics—land rights, PSA repeal, statehood—is becoming central.

2. Youth Vote Could Be Decisive:
   Digital campaigning is playing a bigger role than ever before in regional politics.

3. Symbolism vs. Substance:
   JKNC will leverage its legacy, but PDP is betting on emotive, issue-based messaging.

4. Impact on Statehood Politics:
   The outcome could indirectly strengthen or weaken Omar Abdullah’s negotiating position with New Delhi.

Bottom-Line: Beyond Budgam

The Budgam by-election of 2025 is not just about who occupies a single Assembly seat. It is about who shapes the narrative in post-UT Jammu & Kashmir.

• For Omar Abdullah and JKNC, it’s about consolidating power and trust.

• For Mehbooba Mufti and PDP, it’s about signaling revival and relevance.

• For voters, it’s about choosing between legacy and change.

Whatever the result, this contest will leave a lasting imprint on Kashmir’s political trajectory.