MeT predicts brief relief before hot, sticky weather returns; experts urge preparedness for flash floods and landslides in vulnerable areas.
By: Javid Amin | Srinagar | 11 July 2025
After a three-day spell of much-needed rainfall cooled Jammu & Kashmir following an unprecedented heatwave, the region is now bracing for a return to hot and humid conditions starting Friday, according to the Meteorological Department (MeT).
The recent downpours, which began Monday evening, brought temperatures back to below-normal levels across the Kashmir Valley and parts of the Jammu division. However, meteorologists warn that this relief will be short-lived, as heat and humidity are expected to rise again from July 11 to 13, followed by the possibility of intense rainstorms starting July 14.
Rainfall Recap: A Welcome Respite
Jammu & Kashmir experienced intermittent rains across multiple districts, significantly cooling the environment and breaking the extreme heat streak that had plagued the valley since early June.
Rainfall Highlights (24 Hours till Thursday Morning):
- Kathua: 174.8 mm
- Samba: 96 mm
- Jammu: 37.7 mm
In the Kashmir Valley, districts like Baramulla, Sopore, and Kupwara recorded light to moderate rainfall, contributing to a noticeable drop in daytime temperatures.
Temperature Dip: Short-Term Relief
The summer capital Srinagar recorded a maximum of 28°C on Thursday, which is 1.7°C below normal. This comes just days after the city registered a staggering 37.4°C on July 5—the highest July temperature in 72 years and the third-highest ever.
Other notable temperature shifts include:
- Pahalgam: 23.4°C
- Gulmarg: 17.4°C
These numbers mark a significant dip from the record-breaking heatwave that gripped the valley in two phases—May 18–27 and from June 9 onward.
Forecast: Hot, Humid & Unpredictable
According to Director of MeT, Mukhtar Ahmad, Kashmir is headed into another challenging weather cycle:
- July 11–13: Hot and humid conditions with light showers or thundershowers at scattered locations.
- July 14–16: Likely return of heavy rainfall, with potential for intense showers at isolated places.
Ahmad noted that Jammu division in particular may experience very heavy rainfall, which could escalate into flash floods, landslides, and mudslides in vulnerable terrains.
“There are chances of flash floods at a few vulnerable places with landslides, mudslides and shooting stones,” said Ahmad.
Red Flags for Farmers & Communities
The MeT has issued a public advisory asking farmers to suspend irrigation and other farming operations between July 14–16. The warning also applies to:
- Commuters on hilly roads prone to shooting stones and slides
- Tourists and Amarnath pilgrims, who are advised to monitor updates closely
Disaster management agencies are also on alert, preparing to deploy rescue and relief resources in high-risk areas.
Climate Expert Take: Signs of a Changing Mountain Climate
Environmental experts continue to sound the alarm about Kashmir’s increasing climate vulnerability, emphasizing how:
- Heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense
- Precipitation patterns are turning erratic, often swinging from drought to deluge
- Glacial melt and reduced snowfall are exacerbating water stress and amplifying weather extremes
“Kashmir is now experiencing climate whiplash—shifting between extremes with little transition. These unstable conditions are a direct result of both global climate change and local urban mismanagement,” said Dr. Yasmeen Bhat, climate scientist at the University of Kashmir.
Summary
- Rainfall over the last three days provided much-needed relief from the heatwave in J&K
- Temperature dipped below normal for the first time in weeks
- MeT predicts return of hot, humid weather from July 11–13
- Heavy rainfall and flash floods possible between July 14–16, especially in Jammu division
- Farmers, travelers, and pilgrims advised to remain alert and suspend outdoor activity
- Environmental experts warn of continued climate instability due to global warming
