‘BJP Influence Not on Ballot, But Evident in Kashmir’s Electoral Dynamics: Omar Abdullah

'BJP Influence Not on Ballot, But Evident in Kashmir's Electoral Dynamics: Omar Abdullah

National Conference vice president Omar Abdullah on fighting the Lok Sabha elections in J&K, the importance of the polls post the abrogation of Article 370, and what explains the calm in the Valley. This session was moderated by Muzamil Jaleel, Deputy Editor, The Indian Express

Muzamil Jaleel: This is the first major election after August 5, 2019. What is the situation on the ground?

We had the District Development Committee meeting elections a few years ago, but this is the first major election and its significance is also heightened with the announcement by the Supreme Court that Assembly elections must be concluded by September 30 this year. There was some suspicion that the Government of India would find some reason to delay them, but from the recent speeches by the PM, Home Minister and others, it’s clear that these Parliament elections will be followed immediately by Assembly elections. So that adds to the pressure of these elections.

The situation is evolving. Our five seats are in five separate phases. So the first seat, which is Udhampur, goes to polls as we speak. I had the opportunity to travel to some of the Assembly segments of that Parliament seat in the hills of Jammu. I was pleasantly surprised that people were cutting across religious divide because the BJP in these areas has often tried to divide voters, particularly on religious lines.

It’s not quite the cakewalk even from the Jammu Parliament seat that the BJP would expect. There are issues that the mainstream media, barring some sections, haven’t really focused on. Farmers are concerned about the price of urea and other inputs. Families that have traditionally contributed to recruitment in the Indian army are unhappy about the new system of recruitment. There is also dissatisfaction post the writing down of Article 370 in terms of protection of jobs, land, basic identity…

Muzamil Jaleel: After August 5, 2019, the National Conference (NC) was waiting for the Supreme Court verdict. Now that it has come, is Article 370 still a poll issue?

Of course, it’s an issue. It’s an issue that resonates with people in all three areas of erstwhile J&K. It’s an issue in Jammu, in the three seats in the Valley, and more of an issue in Ladakh than perhaps anyone would have imagined. There is a lot of simmering discontent and unhappiness about the post August 5, 2019, situation. Kargil never accepted what happened. You find voices in Leh that want to stand up and be counted in terms of what they lost and what they had been promised and not given.

Yes, we had a setback in the Supreme Court, but this is not the first time the SC has passed judgment on the special status of J&K. In the past, you have SC judgments that have actually upheld J&K’s special status but that didn’t stop the BJP from making a political issue out of 370 and their desire to abrogate it.

MANOJ CG: Are you disappointed that the manifestos of the Congress and other parties of the INDIA bloc,  your allies, are completely silent on Article 370.

We do have friends who have talked about it — TMC, DMK, the Left. They have stuck their necks out for J&K and are against everything that happened on August 5, 2019. While the Congress is unable to find common cause with us on this particular issue, it is disappointing but I do understand. I understand that they have to trade off their commitment to J&K with the wider electoral arithmetic that they need to factor in.

We are working on the assumption that if not today, someday you will have a government at the Centre that will be happy to engage with us on these issues. Let’s not forget, the BJP has been promising to abrogate Article 370 for decades. It’s only now that they managed to do it. So I’m not suggesting that our struggle will be a short one. It may take long but it’s a commitment we’re willing to make.

We do have friends who have talked about it (Article 370) — TMC, DMK, the Left… The Congress is unable to find common cause with us on this particular issue; it is disappointing but I do understand

Muzamil Jaleel: It seems the BJP is not contesting in the Valley. How do you read it?

The BJP symbol will not be on the machine but the BJP is very much part of the political electoral process. It’s like the NC is not contesting in Jammu, Udhampur or Ladakh, but we are part of the electoral process. We are fighting together with the INDIA bloc. We are supporting Congress candidates in these seats. Similarly, the BJP this time has chosen not to field their own candidates but they are very much sort of there. They’re actively supporting new formations or an older formation that had allied with them post the 2014 elections. The evidence of this is clearly visible on the ground when senior leaders of the BJP come to Srinagar, including their general secretary in-charge of J&K, Tarun Chugh. You know who he meets. When the PM or the Home Minister talk, they talk about defeating the INDIA bloc, defeating the Congress and the NC. They don’t talk about defeating, let’s say, the People’s Conference or Apni Party.

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Muzamil Jaleel: I read Sajad Lone’s statement that they have nothing to do with the BJP.

They have everything to do with the BJP. What was he doing in that meeting with Tarun Chugh? You have a female leader of the BJP who currently has a ministerial rank in the Khadi and Village Board. In a statement, she said that we are sort of supporting, and the People’s Conference and Apni party are allied with the BJP. Sajad, for his own electoral interests, will try to deny it but we know the truth.

Muzamil Jaleel: What about the People’s Democratic Party (PDP)? They said they were ready for an alliance with the NC.

Unfortunately, the PDP decided that they would try to damage the INDIA bloc and made a conscious decision to field candidates against the INDIA bloc.

The distribution of seats for this parliament election was to be done on a similar formula according to which seats were distributed for the District Development Board elections. When those elections were announced, initially the NC had wanted to share seats on the basis of the 2019 Parliament elections, because we felt those were the most recent elections. The PDP and the PC felt that this was unfair. They felt that to compare DDC with the Parliament was wrong. They suggested that we distribute seats on the basis of the 2014 assembly elections, even though the NC took a hammering because of that. My party colleagues went to the NC president, Dr Farooq Abdullah, and said the party is going to suffer on this account. He said it’s more important that we unite and fight those elections and party interests will come second.

So if that formula was suitable for the DDC elections, then for a Parliament election it has to be like for like. Therefore, distribution of seats for the Parliament would be on the basis of the 2019 Parliament election. Three seats were with the NC. We retained those seats. Three seats were with the BJP. Those seats were up for discussion — Ladakh, Udhampur and Jammu. Unfortunately, the Congress couldn’t find space for the PDP in those three seats. But if the aim of the PDP was to keep the BJP out, then it should have been willing to make the sacrifice.

The three MPs or the five will lay the foundation for what is to follow in August-September. You can’t disconnect this election from an election that’s going to come two months later

Muzamil Jaleel: The level of violence has come down. How do you interpret that?

Things are relatively calm, but you don’t see the sort of peace that you want to. The areas that were hitherto peaceful are now more militancy-prone than they have been. In my time, areas like Rajouri, Poonch were completely clear of militancy and violence, but they now see regular attacks against security forces and attacks that claim lives at regular intervals. You’ve had encounters in South Kashmir. The targeted killing of minorities happens with, unfortunately, regular frequency. So militancy still remains a problem on the ground in J&K.

As far as street protests are concerned, yes, you don’t see them the way you used to. But, again, we’ve had periods of calm like this. I remember in my time, 2011-2012, right up to the middle of 2013, it was relatively peaceful. What is responsible for this? To what extent have you been able to win people over? To what extent have you been able to inject fear into people to stop them from coming out? This is a matter on which a lot of us will just have to agree to disagree.

My own sense is that you’ve made it so difficult for people to come out and make their voices heard. You pass such draconian orders that even the dependents of government servants are not allowed to criticise the government. Let’s not even go there as to how free the media is in J&K and how much the police pressurises people who are critical of the government.

Liz Mathew: You were one of the first leaders to raise apprehension or doubts about the INDIA alliance. What is your take on it now?

I’m actually heartened by how much we’ve been able to do in terms of seat sharing and narrowing the gaps that existed. I’m disappointed that we had to see the original architect of this bloc, Nitish Kumar, leave. Unfortunately, he’s made a habit out of coming and going. But other than that, we’ve done better than I had expected. I didn’t expect a meaningful seat-sharing understanding in Uttar Pradesh, but you have one. I thought that discussions with AAP would completely fall apart. While they’ve agreed to disagree in Punjab, I don’t think many of us expected them to come together in Delhi and fight. They’ve sort of been able to agree on some seats in states other than Delhi and Punjab. Similarly, in Bihar you have a good working arrangement. In Maharashtra, you have a good understanding between Sharad Pawar, Uddhav Thackeray and the Congress. Similarly, in Tamil Nadu. The one area where I think we should have and could have done better, but ultimately weren’t able to, is West Bengal.

Aanchal Magazine: A lot of the commentary against the next generations of leaders in Kashmir has been about how the political power centres have largely been concentrated to two-three families in Kashmir, historically. So is there a broader disconnect when it comes to connecting with Kashmiris on the ground?

How many elections do you want me to win before you put to bed this disconnect narrative? I won three Parliament elections on the trot. I won two Assembly elections. I’ve been chief minister for six years. I don’t think I need to get into justifying my existence here. I’m contesting another election now. We’ll let the voters decide. Social media, even in J&K, is a very small echo chamber. Look at the response we get on the ground in Srinagar, particularly in the rural areas. Anyway, which political party doesn’t have a history or background of supporting people belonging to families? The only party that can take that credit are the Left ones. A newspaper said that one in five candidates in the BJP belong to political families.

Muzamil Jaleel: When you talked about the situation on the ground, you spoke about an enforced silence. What are the measures that the government has taken to ensure that?

Have you seen the regular frequency with which people are called to police stations and asked to explain very innocuous social media posts? Look at the way you dealt with politicians, children and grandchildren; you forced them to put advertisements in newspapers virtually disowning their families. Now, this is something that we saw in the dark days of militancy when colleagues of mine were threatened by militants and told to disown the NC. Out of fear for their lives, they would put advertisements in local newspapers saying, I have nothing to do with the NC and nothing to do with mainstream politics. It’s a different matter that in the evening those people would either call us or land up at our homes and say, please don’t go by the advertisement, I have done it to save my life. Similar measures are now being taken by the administration. Young girls are being told to put advertisements in newspapers. I have never seen a separatist or a political statement from them, but for some reason the government felt the need to make an example out of them.

Naveed Iqbal: This election particularly seems to be a lot about identity. How do three MPs or even five ensure the protection of identity from here on?

The three MPs or the five will lay the foundation for what is to follow in August-September. You can’t disconnect this election from an election that’s going to come two months later. The issues that you’re bringing forth in this election, all of them may not have a solution within the hands of the members of Parliament. We’re not fighting these elections in isolation. We are fighting them as part of a bloc. That bloc is committed to certain protections for J&K. We are hoping that on June 5, when the results come out, you will have a government in the Centre that at least as far as we are concerned — the INDIA bloc constituents — will be able to sit down to evolve a mechanism or a system of identity protection. Plus, with amazing regularity, the Government of India hands out assurances to the people of Leh. First they promise them the Sixth Schedule and step back. Now there’s talk of other models of protection. We are two territories that were born of the same womb. We have the same concerns. We had the same protections prior to August 5, 2019. Whatever you’re giving them should also be given to this part of J&K. That’s something that five members of Parliament can do a lot for.

Muzamil Jaleel: What is the situation in Ladakh?

At the border, contrary to what the government would like to tell us that there has been no Chinese incursion at all, we know that there have been (incursions). We know that there are parts of Ladakh that particularly the nomadic tribals, who rear animals, are not able to access. There are parts of Ladakh that our forces are no longer able to patrol. These are reports that one hears from people on the ground. That aside, politically, there’s a lot of unease. Kargil was never in favour of what had happened on August 5, 2019, but large sections of Leh were. Today, you find street protests and hunger strikes. You have social leaders of Leh on hunger strike for 20-21 days at a stretch, demanding certain constitutional safeguards and protections. At this point, if the Congress plays its cards right, the BJP doesn’t stand a chance of retaining the Ladakh seat.

Muzamil Jaleel: Ghulam Nabi Azad has been very active in J&K after leaving the Congress. How do you see it?

I would like to correct your assertion — Ghulam Nabi Azad has been active in one small region of Udhampur constituency and that region has been specifically chosen for him because dividing votes there is to the benefit of the BJP. His party, his candidate, he himself has not campaigned outside of four or five assembly constituencies in the Chenab Valley. He has not been to Udhampur or Kathua. They have made no attempt to contest or fight the seat in those Assembly constituencies. He has confined himself to Doda, Kishtwar, Bhaderwah, Inderwal and Banihal. Source

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