Kashmir Braces for Snow and Rain: Back-to-Back Western Disturbances Set to Hit J&K (Jan 22–28, 2026)

Kashmir is set to experience widespread rain and snowfall from today (Jan 22), as two back‑to‑back Western Disturbances grip Jammu & Kashmir. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued warnings of heavy precipitation, possible highway disruptions, and avalanche risks, with peak activity expected on Jan 23 and again on Jan 27.

By: Javid Amin | 21 January 2026

A Region Poised for Winter Extremes

Kashmir, the picturesque Himalayan valley known for its dramatic landscapes and winter tourism, is bracing for another intense spell of winter weather. Beginning January 22, 2026, the region is forecast to be impacted by two back-to-back Western Disturbances — atmospheric systems that typically bring significant precipitation, snow, and wind to northern India’s higher altitudes.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued warnings of light to heavy rain and snowfall across Jammu & Kashmir, with peak activity expected in two distinct phases: January 23 and January 27. These weather systems could disrupt transportation, heighten avalanche risks, affect agriculture, and challenge daily life across the Union Territory and adjoining areas.

This comprehensive feature delves into the forecast, regional impacts, safety concerns, and what residents, visitors, and authorities should prepare for in the coming week.

Understanding Western Disturbances and Their Impact on Kashmir

Western Disturbances are low-pressure systems originating in the Mediterranean region and traveling eastwards. As they reach the western Himalayas, they interact with cold air aloft, resulting in cloud formation and precipitation — especially in winter months.

In Kashmir, these systems are critical drivers of snowfall and winter precipitation. Their intensity and timing dictate not only the volume of snowfall but also the broad continuum of impacts — from local hydrology to connectivity on key transport routes.

In the current forecast period (January 22–28), two Western Disturbances are expected in succession:

• First System: Active from January 22–24, with peak impact on January 23.

• Second System: Arrives January 26 (night), peaking on January 27, and subsiding by January 28.

The combined effect of these systems will likely result in sustained precipitation over the week, with intermittent breaks but recurring weather impacts.

Forecast Snapshot: Jan 22–28, 2026

This timeline reflects the most updated meteorological guidance, indicating two peaks of intense winter activity rather than a single event.

Regional Weather Impacts Across Jammu & Kashmir

1. Valley and Plains (e.g., Srinagar)

• Rain and Snow: Forecast for widespread light to moderate showers across valley floors and plains.

• Temperature Trends: Minimum temperatures are expected to hover below freezing in many parts, with Srinagar dipping around –2.4°C on certain nights.

• Road Conditions: Slippery roads and localized waterlogging or icy patches likely, especially around dawn and evening commutes.

Regional weather advisories emphasize caution for pedestrians and motorists in Srinagar and surrounding towns during steady precipitation.

2. Higher Altitude Zones (e.g., Gulmarg, Pahalgam)

• Heavy Snowfall Expected: These areas are forecast to receive significant snow accumulations, particularly on January 23 and again on January 27.

• Tourism and Ski Slopes: Ski slopes at Gulmarg and Pahalgam will likely see fresh snow cover, which can enhance winter sports conditions but also pose access and safety challenges.

Given the cold conditions and snow accumulation, authorities may issue special advisories for alpine traveller safety through local tourism and disaster response agencies.

3. Kupwara, Qazigund & Border Regions

• Steep Temperature Dips: Northern and central Kashmir districts may see sharper nighttime temperature falls, accentuating cold wave conditions.

• Road Blockage Risk: Slopes and passes connecting these regions may experience snow accumulation, contributing to intermittent road closures and travel disruptions. Regional forecasts note increased vulnerability in areas with higher altitudes.

4. Jammu Division

• Rainfall with Occasional Snow: The lower elevation Jammu plains can expect rain showers rather than heavy snow, with chances of light snow in higher reaches during peak disturbance days.

Rain in Jammu may cause localized flooding or water-logging, particularly on urban roads.

High Risk Zones and Safety Concerns

Highway Connectivity: NH-44 (Srinagar–Jammu Highway)

The Srinagar–Jammu National Highway (NH-44) is the primary all-weather road linking Kashmir with the rest of India. Its vulnerability increases significantly under heavy snow and rain:

• Snow Accumulation: Alternate or increasing snowfall may lead to temporary closures, further compounded by drifting snow at higher passes.

• Slippery Surfaces and Landslides: The combination of precipitation and steep terrain elevates the risk of landslides, mudslides, and shooting stones, especially near Ramban, Banihal, and in the Mughal Road corridor.

• Historical Precedence: Previous weather events have forced sustained closures along this highway due to landslides and snow accumulation under similar winter weather patterns.

Authorities routinely urge travellers to avoid unnecessary movement on peak disturbance days and to check road status before planning journeys.

Avalanche Threat in Snow-Bound Areas

Avalanches remain a serious safety risk during intense snowfall periods, particularly along steep slopes and high-altitude passes such as:

• Razdan Pass

• Sadhna Pass

• Sonamarg–Zojila Axis

• Pir Ki Gali

The IMD and local disaster agencies have issued specific warnings for residents and trekkers to avoid unstable snow margins without official guidance. Short-term snowpack instability, wind-loaded slopes, and sudden new snow layers increase avalanche susceptibility.

Agricultural and Livelihood Impacts

While snowfall can benefit long-term water storage and winter tourism, heavy and persistent precipitation presents short-term risks:

• Winter Orchards: Fruit orchards — especially apple and walnut — are vulnerable to heavy rain and snow, which can damage buds and affect later yields.

• Cold Stress on Livestock: Sustained sub-zero temperatures and high winds increase stress on livestock; farmers are advised to ensure shelter and feed availability.

Local animal husbandry departments typically issue additional guidance during such weather spells.

Precautions and Preparedness: What Residents Should Do

Given the forecast and advisory period, authorities recommend the following preparatory steps:

Travel and Transport

• Avoid travel on January 23 and January 27, when disturbance peaks are expected.

• Check real-time weather updates and highway statuses via official traffic and meteorological channels.

• Keep chains and emergency kits in vehicles if travel is unavoidable.

Home and Health

• Stock essential supplies (food, medicines, fuel) in advance.

• Ensure heating systems are functioning; maintain adequate indoor warmth.

• Assist elderly and vulnerable community members during extreme cold spells.

Outdoor Activities

• Suspend trekking or adventure activities in avalanche-prone zones.

• Ski resorts should monitor conditions and issue safety advisories for visitors.

Local civil administration and disaster response agencies typically coordinate region-wide preparedness, amplifying IMD advisories for public safety.

Conclusion: A Test of Winter Resilience in Kashmir

Kashmir’s climatic rhythm, sculpted by winter dynamics and Himalayan topography, is once again poised for an active weather episode. With two successive Western Disturbances set to influence the region, authorities and residents alike are preparing for widespread rain, substantial snowfall, heightened avalanche risk, and transport disruptions over the week of January 22–28, 2026.

This weather event underscores the importance of timely forecasts, inter-agency coordination, and community awareness in mitigating risks and safeguarding lives and livelihoods against winter extremes.

Accurate preparation and adherence to advisories remain critical as the region braces for this significant winter weather spell.