Chillai Kalan to Begin with Snowfall: IMD Forecast Signals End of Kashmir’s Prolonged Dry Spell

Chillai Kalan Set to Begin with Snowfall: Kashmir Braces for the True Arrival of Winter

By: Javid Amin | 17 December 2025

After weeks of unusually dry and subdued winter conditions, Kashmir is finally set to witness a seasonal shift. The Meteorological Department (IMD) has confirmed that the onset of Chillai Kalan, the Valley’s harshest 40-day winter period, is likely to coincide with fresh snowfall and rainfall across Jammu and Kashmir, marking a decisive end to the prolonged dry spell that has persisted since November.

According to the forecast, a fresh western disturbance is expected to impact the region from the night of December 20, bringing light to moderate snowfall in higher reaches and rain or sleet in the plains, including Srinagar.

For many in Kashmir, this forecast represents more than a routine weather update. It signals the true arrival of winter, long anticipated and increasingly uncertain in recent years due to shifting climate patterns.

What Is Chillai Kalan—and Why It Matters

The Backbone of Kashmir’s Winter Calendar

Chillai Kalan, literally meaning “the major cold,” spans 40 days from December 21 to January 31. Traditionally, it is the period when:

• Temperatures plunge to their seasonal lowest

• Heavy snowfall blankets the Valley

• Lakes freeze and rivers slow

• Daily life adapts to extreme cold

Historically, Chillai Kalan has been the engine of Kashmir’s winter ecology, replenishing snowpack, groundwater, and surface water systems that sustain the region through spring and summer.

In recent years, however, climate variability has weakened this phase, making this year’s snowfall forecast particularly significant.

IMD Forecast: Snow Returns as Winter Tightens Its Grip

Western Disturbance to Trigger Weather Change

Meteorologists confirm that a western disturbance—a moisture-laden system originating over the Mediterranean—will move into Jammu and Kashmir from the night of December 20.

Expected Conditions

• Higher Reaches:
  Gulmarg, Sonamarg, Kupwara, Zojila and surrounding areas are likely to receive light to moderate snowfall.

• Plains:
  Srinagar and other low-lying districts may experience light rain, sleet, or mixed precipitation.

• Duration:
  Main activity expected between December 20 and 21, with cloudy skies and isolated snowfall continuing till December 22.

This system is expected to break the prolonged dry spell that has raised environmental and agricultural concerns across the Valley.

Ending an Unusual Dry Spell: Why This Snowfall Is Crucial

Kashmir has experienced an abnormally dry early winter, with:

• Limited snowfall in November and early December

• Reduced soil moisture

• Declining river and spring levels

• Rising air pollution due to stagnant conditions

The absence of early snow delayed winter’s ecological reset.

Why the Break Matters

• Snow acts as a natural water reservoir

• Gradual snowmelt feeds rivers like the Jhelum

• Moist soil supports winter crops and orchards

• Cold and snowfall help suppress dust and pollution

Environmental experts view the forecasted snowfall as a temporary but vital relief, even if amounts remain moderate.

Cultural Significance: Winter as a Way of Life

Chillai Kalan is deeply embedded in Kashmir’s cultural memory.

Traditionally, this is the time when:

• Households prepare for extreme cold

• Kangris (traditional fire pots) reappear

• Wood and fuel supplies are rationed

• Frozen water pipes and icy roads become routine

Snowfall during Chillai Kalan is not feared—it is expected. Its absence in recent years has unsettled communities accustomed to winter’s rhythms.

For many residents, the IMD forecast restores a sense of seasonal normalcy.

Tourism Looks to the Skies

Snow Means Revival for Winter Tourism

Ski resorts like Gulmarg, Sonamarg, and other snow-dependent destinations closely track snowfall forecasts.

With fresh snow:

• Ski slopes become operational

• Hotel bookings rise

• Adventure tourism gains momentum

Tourism stakeholders anticipate a surge in winter visitors if snowfall materialises, especially after a slow start to the season.

However, officials caution that weather-related travel disruptions—especially on mountain passes—are also likely.

Daily Life Adjustments: Cold, Fog, and Disruptions Ahead

While snow brings relief, it also introduces challenges.

Likely Impacts

• Sharp drop in night temperatures

• Morning fog reducing visibility

• Slippery roads and transport delays

• Power supply stress in remote areas

Residents are advised to prepare for freezing conditions, particularly in higher elevations and peripheral districts.

Municipal agencies and disaster management units typically shift into winter response mode during this period.

Environmental Relief: Snow as a Lifeline

From an environmental perspective, snowfall during Chillai Kalan plays a critical restorative role.

Key Benefits

• Recharges glaciers and snowpack

• Feeds springs and streams

• Supports saffron fields and apple orchards

• Improves soil moisture and nutrient retention

After weeks of environmental stress—from low river flows to air pollution—snowfall is expected to stabilise ecological systems, even if temporarily.

Climate Context: A Changing Pattern, Not a Return to Old Normals

Experts caution against interpreting this snowfall as a full return to historical winter patterns.

Recent trends show:

• Shorter snow seasons

• More rain instead of snow

• Increased variability in timing and intensity

This makes each snowfall event during Chillai Kalan increasingly important—but also increasingly unpredictable.

Forecast Snapshot

Why This Forecast Matters Now

This weather system arrives at a critical moment:

• When water sources need replenishment

• When tourism awaits snow

• When pollution levels require dispersion

• When climate anxiety runs high

Snowfall at the start of Chillai Kalan carries symbolic, ecological, and economic weight.

Bottom-Line: Winter Finally Knocks on Kashmir’s Door

As Chillai Kalan begins, Kashmir stands at the threshold of its most defining season. The IMD’s forecast offers a reminder of what winter once reliably brought—and what it now brings sporadically.

Whether this snowfall becomes a brief episode or the start of sustained winter activity remains to be seen. But for now, the Valley prepares—homes insulated, roads watched, skies studied.

The snow may be light.
The cold may deepen.
But the season, at last, is arriving.